The global life expectancy is poised to rise by nearly five years by 2050. Forecasts suggest that the average lifespan, which stood at 73.6 years in 2022, will increase to 78.1 years by 2050. However, there are notable gender disparities in these projections. The anticipated average life expectancy for women is projected to climb from 76.2 years in 2022 to 80.5 years in 2050, whereas for men, it is expected to increase from 71.1 years to 76 years, as reported by the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021.

Despite these advancements, there is a concerning trend indicating that individuals are likely to spend more years grappling with health issues, resulting in a narrower increment in healthy living years. The data from the study indicates that global healthy life expectancy is estimated to elevate from 64.8 years in 2022 to 67.4 years in 2050—a more modest increase of just 2.6 years.

Predictions indicate that by 2050, the primary causes of disease will be ischemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal disorders.

In the United States, the average life expectancy for women is expected to increase from 80 years in 2021 to 82.4 years in 2050, and for men, from 74.3 years to 78.4 years. Likewise, in the United Kingdom, life expectancy is projected to rise from 82.4 years to 85 years for women and from 78.2 years to 82.1 years for men by 2050. In the United Arab Emirates, women’s life expectancy is anticipated to increase from 71.5 years to 73.2 years, while men’s life expectancy is forecasted to rise from 77.5 years to 81.6 years.

The report highlights that public health interventions have effectively curtailed and enhanced survival rates for cardiovascular diseases, Covid-19, and various communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs).

Dr. Chris Murray, who chairs health metrics sciences at the University of Washington in the US and leads the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), noted, “In addition to the overall rise in life expectancy, we’ve observed a narrowing gap in life expectancy among different regions. This suggests that while health disparities between affluent and impoverished areas persist, they are diminishing, with significant improvements anticipated, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.”

Despite the projected global increase in life expectancy from 2022 to 2050, the study indicates a deceleration compared to the three decades prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

These findings complement the outcomes of the GBD 2021 risk factors study, also published in The Lancet. The research reveals that the cumulative years lost due to poor health and premature mortality associated with metabolic risk factors such as high blood pressure, elevated blood sugar, and high BMI have surged by nearly 50% (49.4%) since 2000.

This analysis drew on data from 88 risk factors and their corresponding health outcomes across 204 countries and territories spanning from 1990 to 2021.

Particulate matter air pollution, smoking, and low birthweight and short gestation were identified as significant contributors to the loss of healthy years due to poor health and premature mortality in 2021, with notable variations across different age groups, genders, and geographical locations.

The study highlights substantial advancements made between 2000 and 2021 in reducing diseases linked to risk factors associated with maternal and child health, unsafe water, inadequate sanitation, hand hygiene practices, and household air pollution resulting from the use of solid fuels for cooking.

Dr. Emmanuela Gakidou, a professor specializing in health metrics sciences at the IHME, emphasized the necessity of addressing current health challenges, such as obesity and other components of metabolic syndrome, exposure to ambient particulate matter air pollution, and tobacco consumption. She stressed the importance of implementing a combination of global health policies and measures aimed at reducing exposure to mitigate health risks and enhance population health.

Dr. Murray underscored the significant opportunity to shape the future of global health by proactively addressing the escalating metabolic and dietary risk factors, particularly those associated with behavioral and lifestyle choices such as elevated blood sugar, high body mass index, and hypertension.